Coronavirus (COVID-19) 12:22 a.m. March 2, 2020 update

2 03 2020

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update March 1, 2020

Hand sanitizer is gone.  My sister, who is a nurse, warned me this weekend it was probably gone by now.  I told her we weren’t going specifically for that; we were going to do early hurricane supply run.  After all, hurricane season starts June 1. 

We aren’t panicking; we are being practical.  If we don’t use the supplies we had planned to get yesterday, they will last well past hurricane season this year.  We viewed it more as “we’re doing our hurricane supplies shopping 3 months early.”  No one else was panicked in the store, but you could tell the tone was different with some people; some people it seemed that was just doing their normal Sunday shopping.  We were going up and down the aisles to be sure we didn’t miss anything we needed that might not be on our list, like toothpaste for Jeff (while not a hurricane supply, he actually needed it).  We turned our head and I nodded to my right; I said to him, “sanitizer is gone.”  I told him no worries! I had cleaning hacks we could use to get around that:  Essential oils work.  So do bathroom and kitchen wipes.  Just grab a few before getting out of the car (making sure the lid closes—he forgets to do that part of it at time—and stick it in a snack Ziploc bag that would easily fit in his front pocket and will keep his pants dry. 

Here is what I learned today about COVID-19

HOW IT IS SPREAD:   It is spread from person to person.  Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).  Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes.

WARNING SIGNS:  Fever, cough, shortness of breath.  It will occur 2 days to 2 weeks after exposure. 

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FLU AND COVID-19:   The flu:  Transmitted through respiratory droplets of an infected person.  There is a vaccine available (their best estimated guess based on the past and possible one for the upcoming year; they aren’t always right about that second part).  There are 1 billion+ cases worldwide; there are 291,000+ related deaths.  The average rate is about 0.1% (so one-tenth of 1%). 

COVID-19: “May” also be an airborne virus.  No vaccine available.  86,000+ cases worldwide; 2900+ related deaths.   In the February 18 China CDC Weekly, they were putting the death rate at 2.3% on Mainland China.                              

According to Dr. Natalie Azar, masks on your face will not work.  The ones you are seeing that people can just snap on will not filter the viral particles that you can.  There are N-95 masks that are made for healthcare workers only at this moment.  Yes, you could buy them on line but the CDC are asking people not to do this; it will create a shortage and they are needed to first responders and healthcare workers.  The vast majority of people, says Dr. Azar, are not at risk of being exposed currently and the vast majority may just have an experience of a mild illness. 

The Life Care Center in Kirkland, WA

The first patient to first exhibits signs and symptoms of this virus was 6 weeks ago.  Yep.  Six weeks.  A worker and a resident have tested positive.  There are 288 staff and residents there.  There has been no travel as far as they know, but they are doing their protocols right now.  I did this for a friend to help them understand the contacts problem.  The CDC measure that each person will encounter 1.5 to 3.5 people close enough to spread something (some more and some less, but an average). 

As of March 1, six people infected with 288 total of people who may turn up positive once tested.  A resident of the facility died of the virus and three more are in critical condition.  Let’s just go with the 2 individuals we know about and just say they are patients zero—which they aren’t but the math has to start somewhere: 

1 person x 3.5 contacts = 3.5 (4) people exposed

3.5 people x 3.5 contacts = 12.25 (12) people exposed

12.25 people x 3.5 contacts = 42.875 (43) people exposed

42.875 people x 3.5 contacts = 150.06 (150) people exposed

150.06 people x 3.5 contacts = 525.21 (525) people exposed

525.21 people x 3.5 contacts = 1838.235 (1838) people exposed

1838.235 people x 3.5 contacts = 6433.8225 (6434) people exposed

Now these people have had symptoms for 6 weeks.  You can’t use the last number and figure it out because they exponentially get higher as every day passes.  BUT, we can multiple 288 people in that facility and over 7 days, the total number of people exposed comes to 1,852,972 people.  In a week.  Of course, some of the contacts will be similar contacts (like a daughter who visits every day).  This is just an illustration of how things can multiple out of hand pretty quickly. 

One quarter of the firefighters were in quarantine on Sunday because they had been to that nursing facility.  The hospital has asked visitors to stay away.  A nearby college campus spent the day cleansing its campus because students had visited that nursing home. 

King County earlier on Sunday announced two additional cases of COVID-19 that were unrelated to the nursing home and those patients were in critical condition at hospitals in Seattle and Renton. 

MAPS AND UPDATED INFO

The map says the US has 88 cases; the detailed breakdown by country only says 87.  The map was updated shortly after midnight on 3/2/2020; the detailed breakdown was created at 10:15 p.m. on 3/1/2020. 

As far as the world totals, all countries showed increases in their totals except for Afghanistan, Belarus, Brazil, Cambodia, Estonia, India, Japan, Kuwait, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macau, Monaco, Nepal, New Zealand, Nigeria, North Macedonia, Oman, Pakistan, Philippines, Romania, Russia, Thailand, Vietnam, and UAE. New to the list included Armenia, Czech Republic, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, and Ireland.

The chart below was updated at 10:15 p.m. March 1, 2020

The first column of numbers are the number of cases; the second is deaths.

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2 responses

2 03 2020
Joseph Mallozzi (@BaronDestructo)

Hey, Hilda. Thanks for the update. I’ve been following this virus for months on reddit, really the best form of information as the WHO and CDC have seemingly not been forthcoming with information, while governments have chosen NOT to err on the side of caution. The big media, meanwhile, continued to roll out the “worry about the flu instead” argument at a time when people could have been better informed and, thus, been able to take steps to prepare and protect.

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3 03 2020
PBMom

Totally agree about the agencies who one should have been able to trust failing you. I haven’t really been on Reddit. This hadn’t been on my radar until after the first of the year but even then I was just a concerned viewer and I was told by someone I love some obviously bad information that I didn’t check out. This country did a better job with Ebola. But that was a different administration.

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